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Market
Polymarket · Up or Down 5- and 15-minute windows · read-only
Live Polymarket windows next to a fair price from Coinbase and Kalshi.
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Daily noon-ET price ladder Polymarket vs Kalshi, same time
Polymarket's "above $X at noon ET" next to Kalshi's ladder (≈ = interpolated).
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BTC live
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Predicted
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Time left
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Prediction detail
Ranges show how sure the best guess is
Likely range (50%)—
Wide range (90%)—
Chance it's higher than now—
1-minute volatility—
Order book lean—
Top Kalshi bucket—
Price, trend tools and prediction path
Coinbase prices, then the predicted path. Click the future side to set the target.
Layers:
RSI (14) momentum: above 70 up, below 30 down
Candles, volume and EMA 20
Candles coloured up or down; grey bars are volume; the line is the 20-candle moving average.
What the chart says
Recommendation
What it would do right now
How this prediction has moved
Every re-evaluation for the selected minute
PredictionPrice
Market
Polymarket · game moneylines matched to the Kalshi board · read-only
Polymarket's price for each game on the Kalshi board (next 3 days). Gap = Polymarket minus Kalshi, away team.
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Live & today
Click a game for its top 3 picks.
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Filters
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Track record (forward test, no money)
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How to read the props table
Kalshi lists props as ladders ("Player: 50+ rushing yards"). YES pays $1 if the player reaches the number; NO pays $1 if he doesn't. Grade is an evidence grade, not a probability: Strong and Moderate are picks; Weak edge, No play, Conflicting signals and Insufficient evidence are not. Probability = our calibrated estimate blended with Kalshi's price, with its uncertainty range. Value = expected profit per $1 contract at the ask after Kalshi's fee. Click a row for the full explanation: supporting and contradicting evidence, data quality, sample size and risks. Only two-sided markets with a spread of 6¢ or less are shown, for games in the next 3 days. NHL props are scored from NHL game logs; NBA and WNBA props from ESPN game logs (personal edition; the public site lists them with Kalshi's price only).
What the research says about betting propsand how the picks above use it
Cheap longshots lose on Kalshi. Across Kalshi markets, 5¢ contracts lost about 60% of what was put in; people taking the posted price lost ~32% on average versus ~10% for people resting limit orders. So cheap sides (YES or NO) must clear an extra margin, and the ticket defaults to "wait at my price". Source: Bürgi, Deng & Whelan (CEPR summary).
Unders have historically hit more often. 61% of season-long NFL player props went under in 2021–22 (4for4): injuries, benchings and blowouts only push numbers down. It swings, though: one tracker's rushing unders went 111–64 one season and 12–24 the next (Stealing Lines). On Kalshi, buying NO on "k+" is the under; those picks are tagged.
Props are priced less carefully than game lines. Books hold roughly 4–6% on star props and 6–10%+ on role players, and sharp money pays them less attention (Wizard of Odds). That's where edges exist, and also why the hold is higher.
How the probability is built (v2, Oct 2026). Each prop = the player's rate per opportunity (strikeouts per batter faced, hits per plate appearance, points per minute, shots per minute of ice time...) times how much opportunity he is likely to get, with the full spread of short and long games (early hooks, blowouts). The rate is recency-weighted and pulled toward the league average by an amount tuned on 2019-2026 game logs, so small samples and hot streaks can't run away with it. Only adjustments that improved out-of-sample results are used (for pitchers: the opponent's strikeout rate). The probability is then calibrated so that 70% means about 70%, and blended with Kalshi's price (35% model, 65% market), because the price often knows lineup and injury news first.
What the grades mean.Strong and Moderate are picks: the expected value at the ask after Kalshi's fee clears the price, and even the cautious end of the probability range holds up. Weak edge is shown but is not a pick. No play: nothing is worth buying at these prices. Conflicting signals: the model sees value but the season baseline, recent form or recent results point the other way. Insufficient evidence: too little data, a missing input (e.g. starter not announced) or a failed quality check. A grade is not a percentage; the probability column is.
Picks. Only Strong and Moderate grades are picks; Weak edges are shown as information, never as picks. Cheap sides (YES or NO under 20c) must clear an extra longshot margin and can never be Strong.
Injuries and lineups. Players ruled out are removed. A missing input (starter not announced) makes a prop "Insufficient evidence"; a lineup not yet posted, a questionable tag, a back-to-back or the postseason lowers the grade one step. Always check news before betting.
Where the data comes from. Bets and prices: Kalshi only. MLB stats, lineups, probable pitchers and game-day weather: MLB's official Stats API. NFL stats, schedules and injury reports: nflverse. NHL schedule, live scores, standings and game logs: the NHL's public API. Forecasts: Open-Meteo. NBA and WNBA player stats: ESPN's public game logs (free, unofficial; personal edition only). No sportsbook odds are used.
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How to read the game prices
Prices are Kalshi's game-winner markets (a YES contract pays $1 if that team wins). "Win chance" is our own model (MLB: runs scored and allowed plus both probable starters; NFL: points for and against, home field and rest; NHL: goals for and against, home ice; NBA/WNBA: Kalshi price only) blended with Kalshi's price. No sportsbook odds are used. During a game there's no model; the market has the score. A "value" tag needs at least a 3¢ gap to the ask with a tight spread.
For information and entertainment only: not financial, investment or betting advice. Forecasts and picks can be wrong. Market prices from Kalshi; stats from MLB, nflverse and the NHL; weather from Open-Meteo. Bet responsibly, 21+ where legal. · Admin
About these prices —
Prices: Coinbase Exchange (live stream, 1-minute and longer candles). Kalshi's crypto markets settle on CF Benchmarks real-time indices (60-second average), so expect small differences from Coinbase. All times are Eastern Time, like Kalshi's market times.
Over minutes, crypto prices are close to a random walk: the blend's edge comes from Kalshi's crowd pricing and short-term order flow, and on its own it rarely beats simply predicting "no change". Not financial advice.